Let’s do Statcast pitching over the last month, sorted by run prevention in the period, and focus on the pitchers who are probably to possibly available in your leagues. A lot of these guys are repeats but that’s great because it means the stats we’ve used previously have proven to be predictive (thus far).
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I encourage you to look at the entire list so you can get a read on who is pitching the best right now, regardless of roster percentage. I put a lot more stock in pitching splits for a month than I do hitting splits because pitchers have so many more ways to get significantly better or worse that can prove to be lasting, for at least a season (injury/health, mechanical adjustments, pitch mix, pitch sequencing, pitch ratios, grip adjustments, spin adjustments, where they stand on the rubber, etc., etc.).
Of course, this performance can be more fluke than fact. It is a small sample. But it’s more likely fact for a pitcher than it would be for a hitter.
We’ll go from “probably available to possibly” and start with a person I think has earned saves. Hopefully we can repeat our success when we did the same analysis with the then widely available Jordan Hicks.
Note: These stats are all from before Thursday night’s games. So Brayan Bello’s masterpiece is not included.
Relievers
Lucas Erceg has been great. Yes, the Athletics may be the worst team in baseball history. But they’re still going to get saves. Who is standing in the way? Trevor May? Please. Sam Long? He’s not good. Erceg throws about 100 mph and his expected stats the last month are almost as good as his actual. His K% in the period is 30%. His walks are high but his launch-angle allowed is 4° (92nd percentile). His Yahoo rostership is 0%.
Next we have another non-closer but one who is going to need an injury to advance to the coveted role because Will Smith has been good. Smith is injury prone, however. Josh Sborz (also praised this week by our closer expert Greg Jewett) should be rostered and started even as a setup man. Remember, safety first when you can get Ks like this (41.4% the last month). He’s actually allowed a .073 batting average the last month. Sick. His expected average is .147, a number lower than I can ever remember seeing. Sborz is 15% rostered.
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Starters
Our first starter is available in 80% of leagues. Yes, another bad team. So the win probability is low. I get it. But he’s been mentioned here before, too. Johan Oviedo in this pitching environment has to be owned at a much higher rate. The last month: 22% Ks (okay, not helpful but not hurtful, either), .234/.359 actual avg/SLG and .249/.398 expected. He’s 17th in run prevention in the period (94th percentile).
Clarke Schmidt is another repeat and is 30% rostered. I get the K% is terrible at 16.5%. But the team environment — even without Aaron Judge — is above average. How many wins can Judge be worth? It’s not like the Yankees are suddenly a losing team. He can’t be more than a seventh starter in a 12-team league. And it’s no slam dunk even then. But he doesn’t walk anyone so you can count on top WHIP. He’s high RPMs with his fastball, which we love. His actual run prevention in the last month is 88th percentile.
Kyle Hendricks (34%) has even worse strikeout issues than Schmidt. But he’s on a better team? Maybe? Can we say that? It’s at least close. His avg/SLG the past month is .174/.257. He’s been lucky, say the expected stats. So he’s not going to be 88th percentile in runs saved like he’s been but he’s probably going to be at least a tick better than average.
Next is the third pitcher in the period, preventing 13.7 runs the last month, just behind Eury Perez (16) and Blake Snell (15.1). He’s 51% rostered. Ranger Suarez has been outstanding at .204/.296 avg/SLG. Expected stats are much worse but still okay (.252/.414). The public has been skeptical of Suarez and Statcast basically agrees. I can’t order you to get him. If you have him, try to trade him for one of the two guys below.
Braxton Garrett and Reid Detmers are repeats from when they were widely available — but now you probably have to trade for them, which I would recommend. They are ninth and 10th, respectively, in actual run prevention and their expected stats are top notch. Garrett is a ground-ball/strikeout machine. He’s guaranteed to prevent runs at a winning rate going forward. (Garrett is 92nd percentile in average launch angle and 36% Ks the past month — just a sick combination).
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If you have Brayan Bello (58%), keep him. The Ks are below average but everything else checks out great plus his stuff seems more K worthy to the eyeball test.
Between Bello and the last four guys from the list, you should be able to add a very intriguing player for free on waivers.
This last group is Yusei Kikuchi (16th in run prevention, 61% rostered), James Paxton (30th, 61%), Taijuan Walker (8th, 66%) and Andrew Abbott (4th, 71%).
Paxton gets you the most Ks, followed closely by Kikuchi, though Waker and Abbott are fine in Ks. Paxton is already hurt (knee, expected to make his next start, cross your fingers). He’s the best of these pitchers when healthy by far given he hardly walks anyone. When you combine expected average and slugging, Kikuchi is probably the least likely to continue to succeed (but still likely), followed by Walker, Abbott and Paxton (most likely to succeed).
However, Paxton is lefty at Fenway. Lefty Gomez said that pitching Fenway as a lefty is like pitching in a phone booth (if you kids even know what that is). Hall of Fame Yankees lefty Whitey Ford famously refused to even pitch at Fenway. So he’s probably not going to fare as well as he earns, as has been the case the last month (in any other park, he’d be top five).
Here’s the entire list again.
(Top photo: Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
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